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Chindia Targoviste vs Tunari — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tunari
Tunari
11/29/2025Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Eugen Popescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chindia Targoviste57%
×Draw22%
Tunari21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.89
Tunari
1.05

Chindia Targoviste creates 80% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 26 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
Tunari
1.08

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
Tunari
1.85

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
Tunari+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Tunari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
79%
Chindia Targoviste or Tunari
78%
Draw or Tunari
43%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
33%
Tunari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
85%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
56%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
29%
Tunari 1+ goals
65%
Tunari 2+ goals
28%
Tunari 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
73%
Tunari (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Tunari away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + Tunari defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

Tunari attack 1.08 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
57%
level
22%
Tunari scores more
21%

Chindia Targoviste at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chindia Targoviste vs Tunari

Chindia Targoviste beat Tunari 3-0 in Liga II on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu in Targoviste.