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Tuna Luso vs Juventude MA — Serie D 2018

Tuna Luso
Tuna Luso
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Juventude MA
Juventude MA
4/24/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Francisco Vasques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tuna Luso48%
×Draw27%
Juventude MA25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuna Luso
1.42
Juventude MA
0.93

Tuna Luso creates 53% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tuna Luso
1.72
Juventude MA
1.00

allows per match

Tuna Luso
0.86
Juventude MA
1.13

finishing

Tuna Luso+0.00on par
Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuna Luso ↓

Juventude MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tuna Luso or draw
75%
Tuna Luso or Juventude MA
73%
Draw or Juventude MA
52%

Winning margin

Tuna Luso wins by 2+
24%
Juventude MA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tuna Luso 1+ goals
76%
Tuna Luso 2+ goals
41%
Tuna Luso 3+ goals
17%
Juventude MA 1+ goals
61%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
24%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tuna Luso (draw refunded)
66%
Juventude MA (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuna Luso at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuna Luso attack 1.72 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Tuna Luso defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tuna Luso scores more
48%
level
27%
Juventude MA scores more
25%

Tuna Luso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tuna Luso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuna Luso vs Juventude MA

Juventude MA beat Tuna Luso 3-0 in Serie D on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Vasques in Belém, Pará.