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Juventude MA vs Tuna Luso — Serie D 2018

Juventude MA
Juventude MA
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Tuna Luso
Tuna Luso
7/9/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Juventude MA44%
×Draw26%
Tuna Luso29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude MA
1.42
Tuna Luso
1.10

Juventude MA creates 29% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

creates per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Tuna Luso
1.00

allows per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Tuna Luso
1.62

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par
Tuna Luso+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Tuna Luso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw
71%
Juventude MA or Tuna Luso
74%
Draw or Tuna Luso
56%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+
21%
Tuna Luso wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals
76%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
41%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
17%
Tuna Luso 1+ goals
67%
Tuna Luso 2+ goals
30%
Tuna Luso 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)
60%
Tuna Luso (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Tuna Luso away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Tuna Luso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tuna Luso attack 1.00 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juventude MA scores more
44%
level
26%
Tuna Luso scores more
29%

Juventude MA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Juventude MA 2–2 Tuna Luso

Juventude MA and Tuna Luso drew 2-2 in Serie D on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.