Tuna Luso 2–0 Humaitá: Result & Stats | Serie D

Tuna Luso

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Humaitá

Jonilson 31'

A. Silva 27'

7/27/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Olimpico do Para

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tuna Luso74%

×Draw16%

Humaitá10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuna LusoExpected goals in this matchHumaitá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.79

Tuna Luso

2.46

Humaitá

0.79

Tuna Luso creates 211% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

1.72

creates per match

0.73

0.86

allows per match

3.21

creates per match

Tuna Luso

1.72

Humaitá

0.73

allows per match

Tuna Luso

0.86

Humaitá

3.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuna Luso+0.00on par

Humaitá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuna Luso ↓

Humaitá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tuna Luso or draw

90%

Tuna Luso or Humaitá

84%

Draw or Humaitá

26%

Winning margin

Tuna Luso wins by 2+

51%

Humaitá wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tuna Luso 1+ goals

91%

Tuna Luso 2+ goals

70%

Tuna Luso 3+ goals

44%

Humaitá 1+ goals

55%

Humaitá 2+ goals

19%

Humaitá 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tuna Luso (draw refunded)

88%

Humaitá (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuna Luso at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Humaitá away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuna Luso attack 1.72 + Humaitá defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.46

Humaitá attack 0.73 + Tuna Luso defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Tuna Luso scores more

74%

level

16%

Humaitá scores more

10%

Tuna Luso at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Tuna Luso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Silva

31'

Jonilson

Tuna

Humaitá

Manager: Ignácio Neto

Manager: Erismeu