Humaitá 0–3 Tuna Luso: Result & Stats | Serie D

Humaitá

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tuna Luso

Ronaldy 83', 45', 31'

4/19/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 1Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Humaitá28%

×Draw24%

Tuna Luso48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumaitáExpected goals in this matchTuna Luso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.68

Humaitá

1.21

Tuna Luso

1.68

Tuna Luso creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

0.79

creates per match

1.00

2.36

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Humaitá

0.79

Tuna Luso

1.00

allows per match

Humaitá

2.36

Tuna Luso

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par

Tuna Luso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Tuna Luso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw

52%

Humaitá or Tuna Luso

76%

Draw or Tuna Luso

72%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+

11%

Tuna Luso wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals

70%

Humaitá 2+ goals

34%

Humaitá 3+ goals

12%

Tuna Luso 1+ goals

81%

Tuna Luso 2+ goals

50%

Tuna Luso 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)

36%

Tuna Luso (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Tuna Luso away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + Tuna Luso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tuna Luso attack 1.00 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Humaitá scores more

28%

level

24%

Tuna Luso scores more

48%

Tuna Luso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tuna Luso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Ronaldy

45'

Ronaldy

83'

Ronaldy

Humaitá

Tuna

Manager: Erismeu

Humaitá substitutes

GabrielGustavoHenriquePaulinhoYoossefRibeiroWelderJulianoKauãLyrioSayukVinicius

Manager: Ignácio Neto

Tuna Luso substitutes

MenezesEmersonParanhosSilvaPedrinhoGustavoMirandaJanderLuãPopó

Match Recap: Humaitá vs Tuna Luso

Tuna Luso beat Humaitá 3-0 in Serie D on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Ronaldy (31', 45', 83').

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.

Humaitá vs Tuna Luso — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Humaitá vs Tuna Luso