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Tuna Luso vs 4 de Julho — Serie D 2018

Tuna Luso
Tuna Luso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
4 de Julho
4 de Julho
7/2/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Francisco Vasques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tuna Luso52%
×Draw28%
4 de Julho20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuna Luso
1.36
4 de Julho
0.72

Tuna Luso creates 89% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tuna Luso
1.72
4 de Julho
0.58

allows per match

Tuna Luso
0.86
4 de Julho
1.00

finishing

Tuna Luso+0.00on par
4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuna Luso ↓

4 de Julho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tuna Luso or draw
80%
Tuna Luso or 4 de Julho
72%
Draw or 4 de Julho
48%

Winning margin

Tuna Luso wins by 2+
25%
4 de Julho wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tuna Luso 1+ goals
74%
Tuna Luso 2+ goals
39%
Tuna Luso 3+ goals
16%
4 de Julho 1+ goals
51%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
16%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tuna Luso (draw refunded)
72%
4 de Julho (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuna Luso at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuna Luso attack 1.72 + 4 de Julho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

4 de Julho attack 0.58 + Tuna Luso defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tuna Luso scores more
52%
level
28%
4 de Julho scores more
20%

Tuna Luso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tuna Luso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Tuna Luso 2–1 4 de Julho

Tuna Luso beat 4 de Julho 2-1 in Serie D on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Vasques in Belém, Pará.