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4 de Julho vs Tuna Luso — Serie D 2018

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuna Luso
Tuna Luso
4/30/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

4 de Julho49%
×Draw26%
Tuna Luso25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
1.52
Tuna Luso
1.02

4 de Julho creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
1.42
Tuna Luso
1.00

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.05
Tuna Luso
1.62

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Tuna Luso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Tuna Luso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
75%
4 de Julho or Tuna Luso
74%
Draw or Tuna Luso
51%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
25%
Tuna Luso wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
78%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
45%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
20%
Tuna Luso 1+ goals
64%
Tuna Luso 2+ goals
27%
Tuna Luso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
66%
Tuna Luso (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Tuna Luso away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Tuna Luso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tuna Luso attack 1.00 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

4 de Julho scores more
49%
level
26%
Tuna Luso scores more
25%

4 de Julho at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: 4 de Julho 3–0 Tuna Luso

4 de Julho beat Tuna Luso 3-0 in Serie D on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara in Piripiri, Piauí.