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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
10/14/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 58ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks56%
×Draw22%
Seattle Sounders II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.94
Seattle Sounders II
1.13

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 72% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
78%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Seattle Sounders II
78%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
44%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
33%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
86%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
58%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
30%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
68%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
31%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
72%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
56%
level
22%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
22%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Seattle Sounders II

Seattle Sounders II beat Tulsa Roughnecks 4-1 in USL Championship on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).