Seattle Sounders II 4–4 Tulsa Roughnecks

Seattle Sounders II

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Tulsa Roughnecks

9/6/2018

USL Championship · Round 46Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders II43%

×Draw24%

Tulsa Roughnecks33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Sounders IIExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.42

Seattle Sounders II

1.67

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.42

Seattle Sounders II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 130 away

1.53

creates per match

1.19

1.65

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Seattle Sounders II

1.53

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Seattle Sounders II

1.65

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders II ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders II or draw

67%

Seattle Sounders II or Tulsa Roughnecks

76%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

57%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+

22%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals

81%

Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals

50%

Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals

23%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

76%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

41%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)

57%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders II attack 1.53 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Seattle Sounders II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seattle Sounders II scores more

43%

level

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

33%

Seattle Sounders II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Seattle Sounders II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff