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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
3/30/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 6ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks43%
×Draw25%
Rio Grande Valley33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.55
Rio Grande Valley
1.33

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 17% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 93 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
67%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Rio Grande Valley
75%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
57%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
21%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
79%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
46%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
20%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
74%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
38%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
57%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
43%
level
25%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
33%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Rio Grande Valley

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Rio Grande Valley 2-1 in USL Championship on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).