Rio Grande Valley 1–2 Tulsa Roughnecks

Rio Grande Valley

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tulsa Roughnecks

B. Njie 90+2'

Rodrigo Da Costa 60', 22'

6/26/2021

USL Championship · Round 14H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley47%

×Draw25%

Tulsa Roughnecks28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Grande ValleyExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.20

Rio Grande Valley

1.63

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.20

Rio Grande Valley creates 36% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

1.44

creates per match

1.19

1.21

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.44

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley

1.21

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw

72%

Rio Grande Valley or Tulsa Roughnecks

75%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

53%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

25%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

80%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

48%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

22%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

70%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

34%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

63%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more

47%

level

25%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

28%

Rio Grande Valley at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Arturo Diz

22'

Rodrigo Da Costa↳ D. Suárez

25'

K. Kibato

40'

J. Kiesewetter← Lucas Coutinho

46'

B. Njie← W. Kuzain

46'

J. Murphy← R. Albuquerque

46'

M. Jadama← L. Folla

57'

M. Sheldon

60'

Rodrigo Da Costa↳ K. Kibato

68'

V. Sánchez← A. Cerritos

68'

J. Azócar← C. Sorto

74'

S. Kwambe← Marlon

76'

78'

78'

82'

89'

90+2'

Rio

Tulsa

31

26

2

13

5

▼

Folla

44

Bird

16

⚽2

Costa

33

▼

Coutinho

92

A

▼

Suárez

10

▼

Marlon

21

A

1

15

4

23

▼

Ramsay

22

▼

8

5

18

21

▼

Kuzain

20

▼

Sorto

24

▼

Cerritos

Manager: W. Cabrera

46'▲B. Njie←▼W. Kuzain

46'▲J. Murphy←▼R. Albuquerque

68'▲V. Sánchez←▼A. Cerritos

68'▲J. Azócar←▼C. Sorto

76'▲C. Manley←▼L. Ramsay

Rio Grande Valley substitutes

14Njie6Murphy11Sánchez7Azócar2Manley16Riley12Miller

Manager: M. Nsien

40'▲J. Kiesewetter←▼Lucas Coutinho

46'▲M. Jadama←▼L. Folla

74'▲S. Kwambe←▼Marlon

82'▲R. Ayagwa←▼D. Suárez

Tulsa Roughnecks substitutes

9Kiesewetter4Jadama18Kwambe99Ayagwa28Hernandez20Winters1Lewis

Match Recap: Rio Grande Valley vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Rio Grande Valley 2-1 in USL Championship on June 26, 2021.

Goals: Rodrigo Da Costa (22', 60'), B. Njie (90+2').

The match was played at H-E-B Park in Edinburg, Texas.

Rio Grande Valley vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rio Grande Valley vs Tulsa Roughnecks