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FC Tulsa vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
7/22/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 24ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

FC Tulsa43%
×Draw25%
Rio Grande Valley33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.55
Rio Grande Valley
1.33

FC Tulsa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 93 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
67%
FC Tulsa or Rio Grande Valley
75%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
57%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
21%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
79%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
46%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
20%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
74%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
38%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
57%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
43%
level
25%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
33%

FC Tulsa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tulsa vs Rio Grande Valley

FC Tulsa beat Rio Grande Valley 2-1 in USL Championship on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.