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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Reno 1868 — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Reno 1868
Reno 1868
10/19/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 61ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks31%
×Draw24%
Reno 186845%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.32
Reno 1868
1.63

Reno 1868 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 44 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Reno 1868
1.84

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Reno 1868
1.20

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Reno 1868 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
55%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Reno 1868
76%
Draw or Reno 1868
69%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
13%
Reno 1868 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
73%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
38%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
15%
Reno 1868 1+ goals
80%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
48%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
41%
Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
31%
level
24%
Reno 1868 scores more
45%

Reno 1868 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Reno 1868

Reno 1868 beat Tulsa Roughnecks 3-0 in USL Championship on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).