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Reno 1868 vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Reno 1868
Reno 1868
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
5/5/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 16Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Reno 186853%
×Draw22%
Tulsa Roughnecks25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reno 1868
1.97
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.29

Reno 1868 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 130 away

creates per match

Reno 1868
2.13
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Reno 1868
1.40
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw
75%
Reno 1868 or Tulsa Roughnecks
78%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
47%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+
31%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals
86%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
58%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
31%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
72%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
37%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
68%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Reno 1868 scores more
53%
level
22%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
25%

Reno 1868 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Reno 1868 2–2 Tulsa Roughnecks

Reno 1868 and Tulsa Roughnecks drew 2-2 in USL Championship on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada).