Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tulsa Roughnecks vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
4/9/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 6ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks35%
×Draw26%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.28
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.32

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.11

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
61%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
74%
Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
65%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
15%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
72%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
37%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
14%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
75%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
40%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
47%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.32 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
35%
level
26%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
39%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 3–4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Pittsburgh Riverhounds beat Tulsa Roughnecks 4-3 in USL Championship on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.