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FC Tulsa vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhoundsadvanced
11/22/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · FinalONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Tulsa35%
×Draw26%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.28
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.32

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.11

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
61%
FC Tulsa or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
74%
Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
65%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
15%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
72%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
37%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
14%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
75%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
40%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
47%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.32 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
35%
level
26%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
39%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tulsa vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds

FC Tulsa and Pittsburgh Riverhounds drew 0-0 in USL Championship on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at ONEOK Field.