Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3–2 FC Tulsa: Result & Stats

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Tulsa

9/30/2023

USL Championship · Round 38Highmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds55%

×Draw24%

FC Tulsa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pittsburgh RiverhoundsExpected goals in this matchFC Tulsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.95

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.71

FC Tulsa

0.95

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 80% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 130 away

1.61

creates per match

1.19

0.72

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.61

FC Tulsa

1.19

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

0.72

FC Tulsa

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

FC Tulsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw

79%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or FC Tulsa

76%

Draw or FC Tulsa

45%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

30%

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

82%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

51%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

24%

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

61%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

25%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

73%

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

55%

level

24%

FC Tulsa scores more

21%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff