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Tulsa Roughnecks vs New York RB II — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
New York RB II
New York RB II
4/3/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 6ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks48%
×Draw23%
New York RB II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.84
New York RB II
1.38

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 33% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 79 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
New York RB II
1.33

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
New York RB II
2.23

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
New York RB II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

New York RB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
71%
Tulsa Roughnecks or New York RB II
77%
Draw or New York RB II
52%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
27%
New York RB II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
84%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
55%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
28%
New York RB II 1+ goals
75%
New York RB II 2+ goals
40%
New York RB II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
62%
New York RB II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

New York RB II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.23 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + New York RB II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.84

New York RB II attack 1.33 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
48%
level
23%
New York RB II scores more
29%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tulsa Roughnecks 3 – 2 New York RB II

Tulsa Roughnecks beat New York RB II 3-2 in USL Championship on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.