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New York RB II vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

New York RB II
New York RB II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
6/15/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 20MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

New York RB II48%
×Draw23%
Tulsa Roughnecks30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB II
1.83
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.40

New York RB II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 130 away

creates per match

New York RB II
1.84
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

New York RB II
1.60
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

New York RB II+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB II ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

New York RB II or draw
70%
New York RB II or Tulsa Roughnecks
77%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
52%

Winning margin

New York RB II wins by 2+
26%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

New York RB II 1+ goals
84%
New York RB II 2+ goals
54%
New York RB II 3+ goals
28%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
75%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
41%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

New York RB II (draw refunded)
62%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB II attack 1.84 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + New York RB II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

New York RB II scores more
48%
level
23%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
30%

New York RB II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "New York RB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: New York RB II 0–0 Tulsa Roughnecks

New York RB II and Tulsa Roughnecks drew 0-0 in USL Championship on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field in Montclair, New Jersey.