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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Louisville City
Louisville City
9/8/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 38ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks33%
×Draw25%
Louisville City42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.29
Louisville City
1.50

Louisville City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
58%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Louisville City
75%
Draw or Louisville City
67%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
14%
Louisville City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
72%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
37%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
14%
Louisville City 1+ goals
78%
Louisville City 2+ goals
44%
Louisville City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
44%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
33%
level
25%
Louisville City scores more
42%

Louisville City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Louisville City

Tulsa Roughnecks and Louisville City drew 2-2 in USL Championship on September 8, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.