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Louisville City vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
5/24/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 13Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Louisville City57%
×Draw22%
FC Tulsa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.97
FC Tulsa
1.12

Louisville City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 130 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
79%
Louisville City or FC Tulsa
78%
Draw or FC Tulsa
43%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
34%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
86%
Louisville City 2+ goals
58%
Louisville City 3+ goals
31%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
67%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
31%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
73%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Louisville City scores more
57%
level
22%
FC Tulsa scores more
21%

Louisville City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Louisville City 1–2 FC Tulsa

FC Tulsa beat Louisville City 2-1 in USL Championship on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.