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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Loudoun United — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Loudoun United
Loudoun United
8/28/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 35ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks50%
×Draw24%
Loudoun United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.74
Loudoun United
1.19

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 46% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 115 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Loudoun United
0.95

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Loudoun United
2.03

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Loudoun United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Loudoun United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
74%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Loudoun United
76%
Draw or Loudoun United
50%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
27%
Loudoun United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
82%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
52%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
25%
Loudoun United 1+ goals
70%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
33%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
66%
Loudoun United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Loudoun United away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.03 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Loudoun United defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.74

Loudoun United attack 0.95 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
50%
level
24%
Loudoun United scores more
26%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 2–1 Loudoun United

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Loudoun United 2-1 in USL Championship on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.