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Loudoun United vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

Loudoun United
Loudoun United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
6/9/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 16Segra Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Loudoun United43%
×Draw24%
FC Tulsa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loudoun United
1.67
FC Tulsa
1.44

Loudoun United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

creates per match

Loudoun United
1.52
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

Loudoun United
1.70
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

Loudoun United+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loudoun United ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Loudoun United or draw
67%
Loudoun United or FC Tulsa
76%
Draw or FC Tulsa
57%

Winning margin

Loudoun United wins by 2+
22%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Loudoun United 1+ goals
81%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
50%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
23%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
76%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
42%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Loudoun United (draw refunded)
56%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loudoun United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 111 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loudoun United attack 1.52 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Loudoun United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Loudoun United scores more
43%
level
24%
FC Tulsa scores more
33%

Loudoun United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Loudoun United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Loudoun United 3–1 FC Tulsa

Loudoun United beat FC Tulsa 3-1 in USL Championship on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Segra Field in Leesburg, Virginia.