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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Fresno FC — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fresno FC
Fresno FC
9/1/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 46ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks40%
×Draw26%
Fresno FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.40
Fresno FC
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Fresno FC
1.15

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Fresno FC
1.35

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Fresno FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
66%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Fresno FC
74%
Draw or Fresno FC
60%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
19%
Fresno FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
75%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
41%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
17%
Fresno FC 1+ goals
72%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
37%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
54%
Fresno FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
40%
level
26%
Fresno FC scores more
34%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Fresno FC

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Fresno FC 2-1 in USL Championship on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).