Fresno FC 2–2 Tulsa Roughnecks: Result & Stats

Fresno FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tulsa Roughnecks

4/19/2018

USL Championship · Round 9Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC53%

×Draw23%

Tulsa Roughnecks24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fresno FCExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.15

Fresno FC

1.83

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.15

Fresno FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 130 away

1.86

creates per match

1.19

1.11

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Fresno FC

1.86

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Fresno FC

1.11

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw

76%

Fresno FC or Tulsa Roughnecks

77%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

47%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+

30%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals

84%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

54%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

28%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

68%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

32%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

69%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fresno FC scores more

53%

level

23%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

24%

Fresno FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff