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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Detroit City — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Detroit City
Detroit City
5/8/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 12ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks38%
×Draw26%
Detroit City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.38
Detroit City
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 78 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Detroit City
1.22

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Detroit City
1.31

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Detroit City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Detroit City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
64%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Detroit City
74%
Draw or Detroit City
62%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
18%
Detroit City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
75%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
40%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
16%
Detroit City 1+ goals
73%
Detroit City 2+ goals
38%
Detroit City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
52%
Detroit City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Detroit City away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Detroit City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Detroit City attack 1.22 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
38%
level
26%
Detroit City scores more
36%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Detroit City

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Detroit City 3-1 in USL Championship on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.