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Detroit City vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

Detroit City
Detroit City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
8/24/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 29Keyworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Detroit City49%
×Draw26%
FC Tulsa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Detroit City
1.48
FC Tulsa
0.97

Detroit City creates 53% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 130 away

creates per match

Detroit City
1.14
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

Detroit City
0.76
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

Detroit City+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detroit City ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Detroit City or draw
75%
Detroit City or FC Tulsa
74%
Draw or FC Tulsa
51%

Winning margin

Detroit City wins by 2+
25%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Detroit City 1+ goals
77%
Detroit City 2+ goals
43%
Detroit City 3+ goals
19%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
62%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
25%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Detroit City (draw refunded)
66%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detroit City at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.76 · 72 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detroit City attack 1.14 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Detroit City defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Detroit City scores more
49%
level
26%
FC Tulsa scores more
25%

Detroit City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Detroit City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Detroit City 0–1 FC Tulsa

FC Tulsa beat Detroit City 1-0 in USL Championship on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Keyworth Stadium in Hamtramck, Michigan.