Tukunnin 1–3 Loto Popo: Result & Stats

Tukunnin

FT

1 – 3

Loto Popo

6/19/2024

Championnat National · Championship Round - 23Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Tukunnin36%

×Draw31%

Loto Popo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TukunninExpected goals in this matchLoto Popo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.98

Tukunnin

1.02

Loto Popo

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 93 away

1.26

creates per match

0.99

0.98

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Tukunnin

1.26

Loto Popo

0.99

allows per match

Tukunnin

0.98

Loto Popo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tukunnin+0.00on par

Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukunnin ↓

Loto Popo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tukunnin or draw

66%

Tukunnin or Loto Popo

69%

Draw or Loto Popo

64%

Winning margin

Tukunnin wins by 2+

14%

Loto Popo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tukunnin 1+ goals

64%

Tukunnin 2+ goals

27%

Tukunnin 3+ goals

8%

Loto Popo 1+ goals

62%

Loto Popo 2+ goals

26%

Loto Popo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tukunnin (draw refunded)

52%

Loto Popo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukunnin at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukunnin attack 1.26 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + Tukunnin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tukunnin scores more

36%

level

31%

Loto Popo scores more

34%

Tukunnin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tukunnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff