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Loto Popo vs Tukunnin — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
2 – 0
Tukunnin
Tukunnin
12/15/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 12Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Loto Popo49%
×Draw30%
Tukunnin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.25
Tukunnin
0.72

Loto Popo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 88 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
Tukunnin
0.80

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
Tukunnin
1.13

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
Tukunnin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Tukunnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
79%
Loto Popo or Tukunnin
70%
Draw or Tukunnin
51%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
22%
Tukunnin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
71%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
36%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
13%
Tukunnin 1+ goals
51%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
16%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
70%
Tukunnin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Tukunnin away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Tukunnin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tukunnin attack 0.80 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Loto Popo scores more
49%
level
30%
Tukunnin scores more
21%

Loto Popo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Loto Popo 2–0 Tukunnin

Loto Popo beat Tukunnin 2-0 in Championnat National on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.