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Tukunnin vs ASPAC — Championnat National 2019

Tukunnin
Tukunnin
FT
1 – 1
ASPAC
ASPAC
3/11/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 5Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Tukunnin37%
×Draw31%
ASPAC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukunnin
1.04
ASPAC
0.94

Tukunnin creates 11% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 116 away

creates per match

Tukunnin
1.26
ASPAC
0.90

allows per match

Tukunnin
0.98
ASPAC
0.83

finishing

Tukunnin+0.00on par
ASPAC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukunnin ↓

ASPAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tukunnin or draw
68%
Tukunnin or ASPAC
69%
Draw or ASPAC
63%

Winning margin

Tukunnin wins by 2+
15%
ASPAC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tukunnin 1+ goals
65%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
28%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
9%
ASPAC 1+ goals
61%
ASPAC 2+ goals
24%
ASPAC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tukunnin (draw refunded)
54%
ASPAC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukunnin at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

ASPAC away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.83 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukunnin attack 1.26 + ASPAC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

ASPAC attack 0.90 + Tukunnin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tukunnin scores more
37%
level
31%
ASPAC scores more
32%

Tukunnin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tukunnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tukunnin vs ASPAC

Tukunnin and ASPAC drew 1-1 in Championnat National on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Saka Kina Guézéré in Kandi.