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ASPAC vs Tukunnin — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
FT
2 – 1
Tukunnin
Tukunnin
4/28/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 13Stade de Toffo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

ASPAC46%
×Draw30%
Tukunnin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.21
Tukunnin
0.78

ASPAC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 88 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.28
Tukunnin
0.80

allows per match

ASPAC
0.75
Tukunnin
1.13

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
Tukunnin+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

Tukunnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
76%
ASPAC or Tukunnin
70%
Draw or Tukunnin
54%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
21%
Tukunnin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
70%
ASPAC 2+ goals
34%
ASPAC 3+ goals
12%
Tukunnin 1+ goals
54%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
18%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
66%
Tukunnin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

Tukunnin away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.28 + Tukunnin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tukunnin attack 0.80 + ASPAC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASPAC scores more
46%
level
30%
Tukunnin scores more
24%

ASPAC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASPAC vs Tukunnin

ASPAC beat Tukunnin 2-1 in Championnat National on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Toffo in Toffo.