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Tukums vs Rīgas FS — Virsliga 2026

Tukums
Tukums
Preview
14:00
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
7/26/2026VirsligaVirsliga · Round 24
Big match
60%
Rīgas FS
model favours
19%21%60%

Rīgas FS have scored in 18 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Tukums19%
×Draw21%
Rīgas FS60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukums
1.07
Rīgas FS
2.06

Rīgas FS creates 93% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 118 away

creates per match

Tukums
1.23
Rīgas FS
2.25

allows per match

Tukums
1.88
Rīgas FS
0.92

finishing

Tukums+0.00on par
Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums ↓

Rīgas FS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tukums or draw
40%
Tukums or Rīgas FS
79%
Draw or Rīgas FS
81%

Winning margin

Tukums wins by 2+
7%
Rīgas FS wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Tukums 1+ goals
66%
Tukums 2+ goals
29%
Tukums 3+ goals
9%
Rīgas FS 1+ goals
87%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
61%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Tukums (draw refunded)
24%
Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.88 · 97 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums attack 1.23 + Rīgas FS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Rīgas FS attack 2.25 + Tukums defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tukums scores more
19%
level
21%
Rīgas FS scores more
60%

Rīgas FS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rīgas FS are unbeaten in 9 straight
  • Tukums have scored in 16 games running
  • Rīgas FS have won 5 in a row
  • When Rīgas FS score first, they win 100% of the time
  • Both teams score in 90% of Tukums’s matches
  • Tukums score first in only 26% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tukums
LLLLL
FS
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tukums vs Rīgas FS — Match Preview

Tukums face Rīgas FS on July 26, 2026 in this Virsliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.