Rīgas FS 6–2 Tukums: Result & Stats | Virsliga

Rīgas FS

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Tukums

J. Ikaunieks 90'

M. Talla 54'

D. Lemajic 51', 45', 26'

J. Porsan Clemente 37'

I. Pulis 42'

B. Samoilovs 33'

7/26/2025

Virsliga · Round 24LNK Sporta Parks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Rīgas FS73%

×Draw16%

Tukums11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rīgas FSExpected goals in this matchTukums

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.89

Rīgas FS

2.54

Tukums

0.89

Rīgas FS creates 185% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 97 away

2.70

creates per match

1.05

0.73

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Rīgas FS

2.70

Tukums

1.05

allows per match

Rīgas FS

0.73

Tukums

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

Tukums →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw

89%

Rīgas FS or Tukums

84%

Draw or Tukums

27%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

51%

Tukums wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

92%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

72%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

46%

Tukums 1+ goals

59%

Tukums 2+ goals

22%

Tukums 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

87%

Tukums (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.73 · 115 matches

Tukums away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 2.70 + Tukums defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.54

Tukums attack 1.05 + Rīgas FS defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Rīgas FS scores more

73%

level

16%

Tukums scores more

11%

Rīgas FS at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

D. Lemajic↳ B. Diedhiou

33'

B. Samoilovs↳ A. Kholod

37'

J. Porsan Clemente↳ Z. Lipuscek

42'

I. Pulis↳ J. Toba

43'

R. Reingolcs

45'

D. Lemajic

46'

J. Ikaunieks← T. Wouter

46'

M. Talla← B. Diedhiou

51'

D. Lemajic

54'

M. Talla↳ J. Ikaunieks

57'

D. Rogovs← A. Kholod

57'

K. Volkovs← J. Toba

57'

D. Putrans← R. Kirss

58'

D. Zelenkovs← P. Mares

63'

S. Rakic← J. Porsan Clemente

67'

H. Joksts← B. Samoilovs

76'

M. Kigurs← Y. Karashima

78'

I. Atligins← N. Dusalijevs

85'

S. Rakic

87'

M. Talla

90'

J. Ikaunieks↳ D. Lemajic

Rīgas

Tukums

23

Sturins

2

A

▼

Kholod

8

Reingolcs

26

Vientiess

33

A

▼

Toba

99

Mihoubi

11

Anmanis

18

▼

Dusalijev

7

⚽

Pulis

10

⚽

▼

Samoilovs

15

▼

Kirss

16

Nerugals

11

Savalniek

25

▼

Mares

4

Veips

41

▼

Karashima

43

A

Lipuscek

71

A

▼

Diedhiou

26

Panic

22

⚽3A

Lemajic

37

▼

Wouter

77

⚽

▼

Clemente

Manager: Viktors Morozs

46'▲J. Ikaunieks←▼T. Wouter

46'▲M. Talla←▼B. Diedhiou

58'▲D. Zelenkovs←▼P. Mares

63'▲S. Rakic←▼J. Porsan Clemente

76'▲M. Kigurs←▼Y. Karashima

Rīgas FS substitutes

35Maric5Sliede9Ikaunieks10Ikaunieks18Zelenkovs21Stuglis49Kigurs70Talla81Rakic

Manager: Kristaps Dišlers

57'▲D. Rogovs←▼A. Kholod

57'▲K. Volkovs←▼J. Toba

57'▲D. Putrans←▼R. Kirss

67'▲H. Joksts←▼B. Samoilovs

78'▲I. Atligins←▼N. Dusalijevs

Tukums substitutes

1Parfjonovs12Keziks3Semesko5Rogovs6Volkovs14Putrans16Atligins24Ansevics25Joksts