Tukums 1–2 Rīgas FS: Result & Stats | Virsliga

Tukums

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rīgas FS

Leoni 56'

M. Stals 90' (OG)

M. Talla 2'

4/13/2026

Virsliga · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Tukums19%

×Draw21%

Rīgas FS60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TukumsExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.06

Tukums

1.07

Rīgas FS

2.06

Rīgas FS creates 93% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 118 away

1.23

creates per match

2.25

1.88

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Tukums

1.23

Rīgas FS

2.25

allows per match

Tukums

1.88

Rīgas FS

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tukums+0.00on par

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums ↓

Rīgas FS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tukums or draw

40%

Tukums or Rīgas FS

79%

Draw or Rīgas FS

81%

Winning margin

Tukums wins by 2+

7%

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Tukums 1+ goals

66%

Tukums 2+ goals

29%

Tukums 3+ goals

9%

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

87%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

61%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Tukums (draw refunded)

24%

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.88 · 97 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums attack 1.23 + Rīgas FS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Rīgas FS attack 2.25 + Tukums defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tukums scores more

19%

level

21%

Rīgas FS scores more

60%

Rīgas FS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

29'

56'

59'

59'

59'

M. Saidy← I. Diomande

66'

D. Zelenkovs← A. Kouadio

69'

H. Prenga

73'

R. Reingolcs

75'

H. Njie← R. Savalnieks

76'

J. Toba← B. Samoilovs

80'

E. Oloko

82'

R. Kirss← Leoni

90'

M. StalsOwn goal

Tukums

Rīgas

16

Nerugals

11

▼

23

43

6

70

⚽

▼

Talla

81

▼

Rakic

26

Panic

17

A

▼

Kouadio

10

Ikaunieks

7

▼

97

28

6

25

88

🥅

8

7

4

10

A

▼

Samoilovs

11

⚽

▼

Leoni

19

Oloko

Manager: Kristaps Dislers

76'▲J. Toba←▼B. Samoilovs

82'▲R. Kirss←▼Leoni

Tukums substitutes

35Minajevs15Kirss14Putrans21Valmiers16Klavins29Koki5Toba27Deruzinskis30Susts

Manager: Viktors Morozs

59'▲D. Lemajic←▼M. Talla

59'▲M. Kigurs←▼S. Rakic

59'▲M. Saidy←▼I. Diomande

66'▲D. Zelenkovs←▼A. Kouadio

75'▲H. Njie←▼R. Savalnieks

Rīgas FS substitutes

35Maric22Lemajic18Zelenkovs21Dusalijevs5Sliede4Veips49Kigurs30Njie66Saidy