Tukums 5–0 Dinamo Rīga / Staicele: Result & Stats

Tukums

FT

5 – 0

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

10/12/2019

1. Liga · Round 23Tukuma pilsētas stadions (Tukums)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tukums87%

×Draw9%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TukumsExpected goals in this matchDinamo Rīga / Staicele

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

0.72

Tukums

3.50

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

0.72

Tukums creates 386% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

4.05

creates per match

1.16

0.29

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Tukums

4.05

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

1.16

allows per match

Tukums

0.29

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tukums+0.00on par

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums ↓

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Tukums or draw

96%

Tukums or Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

91%

Draw or Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

13%

Winning margin

Tukums wins by 2+

71%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Tukums 1+ goals

97%

Tukums 2+ goals

85%

Tukums 3+ goals

66%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals

51%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals

16%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tukums (draw refunded)

95%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums at home — creates 4.05, concedes 0.29 · 21 matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums attack 4.05 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 3.50

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.16 + Tukums defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Tukums scores more

87%

level

9%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more

4%

Tukums at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Tukums will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff