Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 0–0 Tukums: Result & Stats

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

FT

0 – 0

Tukums

8/3/2019

1. Liga · Round 14Stadions Rīgas Ostvalda vidusskola (Rīga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele24%

×Draw21%

Tukums55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Rīga / StaiceleExpected goals in this matchTukums

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.19

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

1.41

Tukums

2.19

Tukums creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

1.90

creates per match

2.73

1.65

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

1.90

Tukums

2.73

allows per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

1.65

Tukums

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par

Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele ↓

Tukums →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or draw

45%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or Tukums

79%

Draw or Tukums

76%

Winning margin

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+

11%

Tukums wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals

17%

Tukums 1+ goals

89%

Tukums 2+ goals

64%

Tukums 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)

31%

Tukums (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Tukums away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.90 + Tukums defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tukums attack 2.73 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more

24%

level

21%

Tukums scores more

55%

Tukums at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tukums will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff