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Tukums vs Balvu — 1. Liga 2026

Tukums
Tukums
FT
13 – 0
Balvu
Balvu
9/14/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 19Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions (Tukums)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tukums96%
×Draw3%
Balvu1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukums
5.41
Balvu
0.62

Tukums creates 773% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tukums
4.00
Balvu
0.94

allows per match

Tukums
0.30
Balvu
6.82

finishing

Tukums+0.00on par
Balvu+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums ↓

Balvu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 53% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Tukums or draw
99%
Tukums or Balvu
97%
Draw or Balvu
4%

Winning margin

Tukums wins by 2+
89%
Balvu wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Tukums 1+ goals
99%
Tukums 2+ goals
96%
Tukums 3+ goals
87%
Balvu 1+ goals
46%
Balvu 2+ goals
13%
Balvu 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tukums (draw refunded)
99%
Balvu (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.30 · 20 matches

Balvu away — creates 0.94, concedes 6.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums attack 4.00 + Balvu defence 6.82 → ÷2 → 5.41

Balvu attack 0.94 + Tukums defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Tukums scores more
96%
level
3%
Balvu scores more
1%

Tukums at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Tukums will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tukums vs Balvu

Tukums beat Balvu 13-0 in 1. Liga on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions (Tukums).