Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Balvu vs Tukums — 1. Liga 2026

Balvu
Balvu
FT
0 – 1
Tukums
Tukums
5/26/20181. Liga1. Liga · Round 6Gulbenes pilsētas stadions (Gulbene)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Balvu6%
×Draw10%
Tukums84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balvu
0.80
Tukums
3.34

Tukums creates 318% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Balvu
0.68
Tukums
2.73

allows per match

Balvu
3.95
Tukums
0.91

finishing

Balvu+0.00on par
Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balvu ↓

Tukums →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Balvu or draw
16%
Balvu or Tukums
90%
Draw or Tukums
94%

Winning margin

Balvu wins by 2+
2%
Tukums wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Balvu 1+ goals
55%
Balvu 2+ goals
19%
Balvu 3+ goals
5%
Tukums 1+ goals
96%
Tukums 2+ goals
84%
Tukums 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Balvu (draw refunded)
6%
Tukums (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balvu at home — creates 0.68, concedes 3.95 · 19 matches

Tukums away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balvu attack 0.68 + Tukums defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Tukums attack 2.73 + Balvu defence 3.95 → ÷2 → 3.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Balvu scores more
6%
level
10%
Tukums scores more
84%

Tukums at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Tukums will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Balvu 0–1 Tukums

Tukums beat Balvu 1-0 in 1. Liga on May 26, 2018.

The match was played at Gulbenes pilsētas stadions (Gulbene).