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Tukums II vs Riga FC II — 1. Liga 2026

Tukums II
Tukums II
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 1
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
5/26/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 8Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Tukums II24%
×Draw21%
Riga FC II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukums II
1.35
Riga FC II
2.17

Riga FC II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Tukums II
1.41
Riga FC II
2.14

allows per match

Tukums II
2.19
Riga FC II
1.29

finishing

Tukums II+0.00on par
Riga FC II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums II ↓

Riga FC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Tukums II or draw
44%
Tukums II or Riga FC II
79%
Draw or Riga FC II
76%

Winning margin

Tukums II wins by 2+
10%
Riga FC II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Tukums II 1+ goals
74%
Tukums II 2+ goals
39%
Tukums II 3+ goals
15%
Riga FC II 1+ goals
89%
Riga FC II 2+ goals
64%
Riga FC II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Tukums II (draw refunded)
30%
Riga FC II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.19 · 58 matches

Riga FC II away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums II attack 1.41 + Riga FC II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Riga FC II attack 2.14 + Tukums II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tukums II scores more
24%
level
21%
Riga FC II scores more
56%

Riga FC II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Riga FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Tukums II 0–7 Riga FC II

Riga FC II beat Tukums II 7-0 in 1. Liga on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions in Tukums.