Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Riga FC II vs Tukums II — 1. Liga 2026

Riga FC II
Riga FC II
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tukums II
Tukums II
9/27/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 21Mežaparks Sports Village

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Riga FC II70%
×Draw16%
Tukums II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riga FC II
2.67
Tukums II
1.11

Riga FC II creates 141% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

creates per match

Riga FC II
2.72
Tukums II
1.21

allows per match

Riga FC II
1.02
Tukums II
2.62

finishing

Riga FC II+0.00on par
Tukums II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riga FC II ↓

Tukums II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Riga FC II or draw
86%
Riga FC II or Tukums II
84%
Draw or Tukums II
30%

Winning margin

Riga FC II wins by 2+
49%
Tukums II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Riga FC II 1+ goals
93%
Riga FC II 2+ goals
74%
Riga FC II 3+ goals
49%
Tukums II 1+ goals
67%
Tukums II 2+ goals
30%
Tukums II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Riga FC II (draw refunded)
84%
Tukums II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riga FC II at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Tukums II away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.62 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riga FC II attack 2.72 + Tukums II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.67

Tukums II attack 1.21 + Riga FC II defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Riga FC II scores more
70%
level
16%
Tukums II scores more
14%

Riga FC II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Riga FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riga FC II vs Tukums II

Riga FC II beat Tukums II 9-0 in 1. Liga on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Mežaparks Sports Village in Riga.