Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK — 1. Liga 2026

Tukums II
Tukums II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
M. Oliynyk 39' (pen)
R. Muiznieks 4'
7/5/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 11Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tukums II31%
×Draw24%
Leevon / PPK46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukums II
1.35
Leevon / PPK
1.70

Leevon / PPK creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tukums II
1.41
Leevon / PPK
1.21

allows per match

Tukums II
2.19
Leevon / PPK
1.30

finishing

Tukums II+0.00on par
Leevon / PPK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums II ↓

Leevon / PPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tukums II or draw
54%
Tukums II or Leevon / PPK
76%
Draw or Leevon / PPK
69%

Winning margin

Tukums II wins by 2+
13%
Leevon / PPK wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tukums II 1+ goals
74%
Tukums II 2+ goals
39%
Tukums II 3+ goals
15%
Leevon / PPK 1+ goals
82%
Leevon / PPK 2+ goals
51%
Leevon / PPK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tukums II (draw refunded)
40%
Leevon / PPK (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.19 · 58 matches

Leevon / PPK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums II attack 1.41 + Leevon / PPK defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leevon / PPK attack 1.21 + Tukums II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tukums II scores more
31%
level
24%
Leevon / PPK scores more
46%

Leevon / PPK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leevon / PPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
R. Muiznieks
39'
M. OliynykPenalty
46'
V. Kapustins← V. Kapustins
46'
I. Atligins← I. Atligins
46'
M. Prohorenkovs← M. Prohorenkovs
64'
R. Dzeguze← R. Dzeguze
65'
V. Ostrovskis
72'
G. Kirkils
74'
A. Petrovskis← A. Petrovskis
81'
R. Lusis← R. Lusis
81'
A. Jaudzems← A. Jaudzems
88'
D. Romenskis← D. Romenskis
90+1'
I. Labuds← I. Labuds
90+2'
A. Ozolins← A. Ozolins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK

Leevon / PPK beat Tukums II 2-0 in 1. Liga on July 5, 2024.

Goals: R. Muiznieks (4'), M. Oliynyk (39' pen).

The match was played at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions in Tukums.