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Leevon / PPK vs Tukums II — 1. Liga 2026

Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tukums II
Tukums II
M. Oliynyk 65' (pen)
R. Muiznieks 56'
Anmanis 25'
I. Atligins 5'
10/28/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 24RTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Leevon / PPK56%
×Draw20%
Tukums II24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leevon / PPK
2.21
Tukums II
1.40

Leevon / PPK creates 58% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

creates per match

Leevon / PPK
1.81
Tukums II
1.21

allows per match

Leevon / PPK
1.59
Tukums II
2.62

finishing

Leevon / PPK+0.00on par
Tukums II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leevon / PPK ↓

Tukums II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Leevon / PPK or draw
76%
Leevon / PPK or Tukums II
80%
Draw or Tukums II
44%

Winning margin

Leevon / PPK wins by 2+
34%
Tukums II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leevon / PPK 1+ goals
89%
Leevon / PPK 2+ goals
65%
Leevon / PPK 3+ goals
38%
Tukums II 1+ goals
75%
Tukums II 2+ goals
41%
Tukums II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Leevon / PPK (draw refunded)
70%
Tukums II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leevon / PPK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

Tukums II away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.62 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leevon / PPK attack 1.81 + Tukums II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.21

Tukums II attack 1.21 + Leevon / PPK defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leevon / PPK scores more
56%
level
20%
Tukums II scores more
24%

Leevon / PPK at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leevon / PPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
I. Atligins
25'
Anmanis
45+1'
A. Krancmanis
46'
R. Korzans← R. Korzans
46'
R. Ulmis← R. Ulmis
53'
R. Arsauskis
56'
R. Muiznieks
64'
V. Kapustins
65'
M. OliynykPenalty
69'
K. Campbell
74'
A. Jaudzems← M. Tatkov
74'
D. Trapucka← D. Trapucka
78'
N. Afanasjevs← N. Afanasjevs
89'
M. Cingulis← M. Cingulis
89'
M. Cingulis← M. Cingulis
90+1'
G. Makoveckis← G. Makoveckis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leevon / PPK vs Tukums II

Leevon / PPK and Tukums II drew 2-2 in 1. Liga on October 28, 2024.

Goals: I. Atligins (5'), Anmanis (25'), R. Muiznieks (56'), M. Oliynyk (65' pen).

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.