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Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts — 1. Liga 2026

Tukums II
Tukums II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
6/30/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 10Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Tukums II27%
×Draw22%
JDFS Alberts51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukums II
1.37
JDFS Alberts
1.97

JDFS Alberts creates 44% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 88 away

creates per match

Tukums II
1.41
JDFS Alberts
1.75

allows per match

Tukums II
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.33

finishing

Tukums II+0.00on par
JDFS Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums II ↓

JDFS Alberts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tukums II or draw
49%
Tukums II or JDFS Alberts
78%
Draw or JDFS Alberts
73%

Winning margin

Tukums II wins by 2+
12%
JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Tukums II 1+ goals
75%
Tukums II 2+ goals
40%
Tukums II 3+ goals
16%
JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
86%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
58%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tukums II (draw refunded)
34%
JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.19 · 58 matches

JDFS Alberts away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums II attack 1.41 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

JDFS Alberts attack 1.75 + Tukums II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tukums II scores more
27%
level
22%
JDFS Alberts scores more
51%

JDFS Alberts at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Tukums II 1–4 JDFS Alberts

JDFS Alberts beat Tukums II 4-1 in 1. Liga on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions in Tukums.