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JDFS Alberts vs Tukums II — 1. Liga 2026

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Tukums II
Tukums II
10/25/20251. Liga1. Liga · Round 24RTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

JDFS Alberts63%
×Draw19%
Tukums II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JDFS Alberts
2.36
Tukums II
1.18

JDFS Alberts creates 100% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 58 away

creates per match

JDFS Alberts
2.10
Tukums II
1.21

allows per match

JDFS Alberts
1.15
Tukums II
2.62

finishing

JDFS Alberts+0.00on par
Tukums II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JDFS Alberts ↓

Tukums II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

JDFS Alberts or draw
82%
JDFS Alberts or Tukums II
81%
Draw or Tukums II
37%

Winning margin

JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
41%
Tukums II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
90%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
68%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
41%
Tukums II 1+ goals
69%
Tukums II 2+ goals
33%
Tukums II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
78%
Tukums II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JDFS Alberts at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.15 · 86 matches

Tukums II away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.62 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JDFS Alberts attack 2.10 + Tukums II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.36

Tukums II attack 1.21 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

JDFS Alberts scores more
63%
level
19%
Tukums II scores more
18%

JDFS Alberts at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: JDFS Alberts 4–3 Tukums II

JDFS Alberts beat Tukums II 4-3 in 1. Liga on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.