Tukums II 2–3 Grobiņa: Result & Stats | 1. Liga

Tukums II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Grobiņa

9/11/2022

1. Liga · Round 18Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tukums II38%

×Draw21%

Grobiņa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tukums IIExpected goals in this matchGrobiņa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.94

Tukums II

1.88

Grobiņa

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

1.41

creates per match

1.69

2.19

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Tukums II

1.41

Grobiņa

1.69

allows per match

Tukums II

2.19

Grobiņa

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tukums II+0.00on par

Grobiņa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums II ↓

Grobiņa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Tukums II or draw

60%

Tukums II or Grobiņa

79%

Draw or Grobiņa

62%

Winning margin

Tukums II wins by 2+

20%

Grobiņa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tukums II 1+ goals

85%

Tukums II 2+ goals

56%

Tukums II 3+ goals

29%

Grobiņa 1+ goals

86%

Grobiņa 2+ goals

58%

Grobiņa 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Tukums II (draw refunded)

49%

Grobiņa (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.19 · 58 matches

Grobiņa away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums II attack 1.41 + Grobiņa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.88

Grobiņa attack 1.69 + Tukums II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tukums II scores more

38%

level

21%

Grobiņa scores more

40%

Grobiņa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grobiņa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff