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Grobiņa vs Tukums II — 1. Liga 2026

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tukums II
Tukums II
7/30/20231. Liga1. Liga · Round 13Grobiņas stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Grobiņa70%
×Draw16%
Tukums II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobiņa
2.92
Tukums II
1.27

Grobiņa creates 130% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 58 away

creates per match

Grobiņa
3.21
Tukums II
1.21

allows per match

Grobiņa
1.34
Tukums II
2.62

finishing

Grobiņa+0.00on par
Tukums II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobiņa ↓

Tukums II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Grobiņa or draw
86%
Grobiņa or Tukums II
84%
Draw or Tukums II
30%

Winning margin

Grobiņa wins by 2+
50%
Tukums II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grobiņa 1+ goals
94%
Grobiņa 2+ goals
78%
Grobiņa 3+ goals
55%
Tukums II 1+ goals
72%
Tukums II 2+ goals
36%
Tukums II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grobiņa (draw refunded)
83%
Tukums II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobiņa at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Tukums II away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.62 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobiņa attack 3.21 + Tukums II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.92

Tukums II attack 1.21 + Grobiņa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Grobiņa scores more
70%
level
16%
Tukums II scores more
14%

Grobiņa at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Grobiņa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grobiņa vs Tukums II

Grobiņa beat Tukums II 4-0 in 1. Liga on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Grobiņas stadionā in Grobiņa.