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Tuilla vs Real Oviedo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Tuilla
Tuilla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
9/22/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tuilla26%
×Draw25%
Real Oviedo II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuilla
1.07
Real Oviedo II
1.59

Real Oviedo II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 36 away

creates per match

Tuilla
1.39
Real Oviedo II
1.89

allows per match

Tuilla
1.29
Real Oviedo II
0.75

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw
51%
Tuilla or Real Oviedo II
75%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
74%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+
10%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals
66%
Tuilla 2+ goals
29%
Tuilla 3+ goals
9%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
80%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
47%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)
34%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tuilla scores more
26%
level
25%
Real Oviedo II scores more
49%

Real Oviedo II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuilla vs Real Oviedo II

Real Oviedo II beat Tuilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Candín in Tuilla.