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Real Oviedo II vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tuilla
Tuilla
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Real Oviedo II61%
×Draw21%
Tuilla18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Oviedo II
1.96
Tuilla
0.94

Real Oviedo II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 110 away

creates per match

Real Oviedo II
2.47
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Real Oviedo II
0.72
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw
82%
Real Oviedo II or Tuilla
79%
Draw or Tuilla
39%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
37%
Tuilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
86%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
58%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
31%
Tuilla 1+ goals
61%
Tuilla 2+ goals
24%
Tuilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
78%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more
61%
level
21%
Tuilla scores more
18%

Real Oviedo II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Oviedo II 1–1 Tuilla

Real Oviedo II and Tuilla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.