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Tuilla vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Tuilla
Tuilla
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Navarro
Navarro
12/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tuilla47%
×Draw26%
Navarro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuilla
1.51
Navarro
1.09

Tuilla creates 39% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 63 away

creates per match

Tuilla
1.39
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

Tuilla
1.29
Navarro
1.63

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw
73%
Tuilla or Navarro
74%
Draw or Navarro
53%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+
23%
Navarro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals
78%
Tuilla 2+ goals
44%
Tuilla 3+ goals
19%
Navarro 1+ goals
66%
Navarro 2+ goals
30%
Navarro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)
63%
Navarro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Navarro attack 0.89 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tuilla scores more
47%
level
26%
Navarro scores more
27%

Tuilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Tuilla 3–2 Navarro

Tuilla beat Navarro 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Candín in Tuilla.