Navarro 0–3 Tuilla: Result & Stats

Navarro

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tuilla

Cris Alonso 90'

Nicolas Diaz 89'

Israel Villoria 39' (OG)

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Tabiella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Navarro39%

×Draw28%

Tuilla33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavarroExpected goals in this matchTuilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Navarro

1.25

Tuilla

1.13

Navarro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 110 away

1.05

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Navarro

1.05

Tuilla

1.17

allows per match

Navarro

1.09

Tuilla

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navarro+0.00on par

Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navarro ↓

Tuilla →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Navarro or draw

67%

Navarro or Tuilla

72%

Draw or Tuilla

61%

Winning margin

Navarro wins by 2+

17%

Tuilla wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Navarro 1+ goals

71%

Navarro 2+ goals

36%

Navarro 3+ goals

13%

Tuilla 1+ goals

68%

Tuilla 2+ goals

31%

Tuilla 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Navarro (draw refunded)

54%

Tuilla (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Navarro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Navarro attack 1.05 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Navarro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Navarro scores more

39%

level

28%

Tuilla scores more

33%

Navarro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Cris Alonso← I. Velardi

39'

Israel VilloriaOwn goal

59'

Pablo Rodriguez← Gonzalo Acosta

59'

Beni Lázaro← Hugo Martínez

65'

Dani Martínez← Alfredo del Rio

65'

Jonas Redondo← Guille Avendaño

65'

Diego Polo← Israel Villoria

75'

Luis Del Río← Marco Antonio

75'

Diego Gulin← Cristian Acerete

78'

Luis Cabeza← Manu Rionda

89'

Luismi Riopedre← Alberto Fernández

89'

Nicolas Diaz

90'

Cris Alonso

Navarro

Tuilla

▼

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⚽

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🥅

▼

Villoria

▼

Rionda

Manager: Davo

65'▲Dani Martínez←▼Alfredo del Rio

65'▲Jonas Redondo←▼Guille Avendaño

65'▲Diego Polo←▼Israel Villoria

78'▲Luis Cabeza←▼Manu Rionda

89'▲Luismi Riopedre←▼Alberto Fernández

Navarro substitutes

MartínezRedondoPoloCabezaRiopedre

Manager: Manolo Simón

24'▲Cris Alonso←▼I. Velardi

59'▲Pablo Rodriguez←▼Gonzalo Acosta

59'▲Beni Lázaro←▼Hugo Martínez

75'▲Luis Del Río←▼Marco Antonio

75'▲Diego Gulin←▼Cristian Acerete

Tuilla substitutes

AlonsoRodriguezLázaroRíoGulin